International Journal of Science and Technology

International Journal of Science and Technology>> Volume 7, Number 2, February 2017

International Journal of Science and Technology


The Status of the Commercial Chambo (Oreochromis Species) fishery in Malawi: A Time Series Approach

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Author(s) Matthews Lazaro, Wilson Wesley Lazaro Jere
On Pages 322-327
Volume No. 3
Issue No. 6
Issue Date June, 2013
Publishing Date June, 2013
Keywords Forecasting, ARIMA, Management, Oreochromis species, Lake Malawi.


Abstract


Fisheries forecasting is a very important tool for fisheries managers and scientists to enable them to decide on sustainable management issues Time series models have been used to forecast catches in fisheries sectors in different countries but to the contrary, Malawi has lagged behind in using time series model in forecasting. In this paper time series models have been used to forecast commercial Oreochromis species locally known as chambo based on data on Lake Malawi fish catch during years from 1976 to 2010. The study considered Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) processes to select the appropriate stochastic model for forecasting annual commercial chambo catch from Lake Malawi. Based on ARIMA (p, d, q) and its components ACF, PACF, Normalized BIC, Box-Ljung Q statistics and residuals estimated, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was selected. Based on the selected model, it could be forecasted that the commercial chambo catch would increase to 854 tonnes in 2020 from 437 tonnes in 2010.

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